In the Southern Victory Series, we already know that the Central Powers (the United States, Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire) won both the Great War and the Second Great War against the Entente Powers (the Confederate States, the United Kingdom, France and Russia).
However, wasn't it one of Harry Turtledove's original plans to have the US and the rest of the Central Powers lose the Great War to the Confederacy and the remaining Entente Power members?
Here on this blog, we will discus what would've possibly happened if Turtledove chose his original plan to have the Entente win the Great War. An alternate-history-within-an-alternate-history type of deal.
I will give my two-sense as well as provided other peoples alternate history fan-fictions and alternate maps to see what could have possibly happened.
The Discussion of What Might Happen
I decided to have different sections for the periods of this alternate history to make things easier.
The End of the First Great War
The Point of Divergence in this already alternate world would likely occur in early 1917 when the Great War in the North American Theater is in a bloody stalemate with the Americans, Confederates and Canadians/British all pretty much stuck where they are.
However, things soon change when General George Custer devises a plan that he believed would end the war by the end of the year. Custer was very fond of Barrels and plans to use all the ones under his command, around 300, and mass them into a single formation. He launches his assault on Remembrance Day (April 22), known as the Barrel Roll Offensive, Custer succeeds in breaking through the initial Confederate trench lines. However, the attack stalled outside Nashville when most of the barrels break down at the worst possible time. The Confederate Army of Kentucky, the principal Confederate formation in the theater, sees an opportunity to surround First Army, along with the neighboring US Second Army under General John Pershing. Linking up with columns in Arkansas and Eastern Tennessee, the Army of Kentucky succeeded in surrounding the two US armies in what would later be known as the Nashville Pocket. For the next couple weeks, Confederate troops slowly grinds away the US forces. Custer begins growing increasingly out of touch with the reality of his situation and refused even the possibility of surrender. Eventually, his adjutant, Major Abner Dowling, his subordinate Brigadier General Daniel MacArthur, and Pershing decide to remove Custer, which they promptly do and Custer retires in disgrace. On May 25, 1917, the forces in the Nashville Pocket surrender. The few troops that did escape were forced to withdraw back across the Ohio River into Indiana and Ohio.
In the aftermath of the unprecedented disaster, Socialist extremists in the US began mass protests to end the war, but President Theodore Roosevelt stubbornly refused. On the Maryland front, the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia is in danger of losing its holdings in Maryland, including the de jure capital of the US, Washington, DC. Reinforced by troops fresh from Tennessee and Kentucky along with newly-raised black troops, the ANV planned a drive straight towards Philadelphia, the de facto capital of the US, also using barrels, except this time engineers made sure they wouldn't break down. Launching the offensive, code named 'Longwood,' on June 15, the ANV succeeded in breaking through the lines of the US Fifth and Ninth Armies. By the end of June, they were on the outskirts of Philadelphia. By early July, the city was surrounded and under siege. President Roosevelt and most of the government decided to stay in the city in order to keep morale strong. However, with things going terribly, US troops elsewhere are unable to relieve the beleaguered capital, and an all-out Socialist uprising (possibly about to turn into a Second American Civil War or a Second American Revolution) was occurring throughout the nation.
Farther north in Canada, Anglo-Canadian forces begin to copy the strategy of massed barrels, and slowly drive US forces out. Manitoba was fully liberated in late June, while liberation campaigns were ongoing in Ontario. By the end of July, Ontario was liberated, and Anglo-Canadian columns had entered New York. Meanwhile, the Mormons, taking advantage of the US's situation, launched a second uprising in Utah. Despite the position his country was in, President Roosevelt continued to howl defiance. In early August, the Confederate Army finally enters Philadelphia. Roosevelt, refusing to surrender without a fight, joins up with US soldiers and prepares to potentially relive his memories of his Unauthorized Regiment. However, he ends up getting killed by the Confederates while defending the city and is remembered as hero while most of the remaining government that hasn't fled the city is killed by a Socialist uprising.
On August 9, 1917, the US Government now under the leadership of the new 29th president Walter McKenna (who wasn't in Philadelphia at the time of Roosevelt's death) asks the Confederates, Canadians, and British for an armistice, which was signed shortly afterwards. The war in Europe would likely end shortly afterwards in either late 1917 or early 1918.
Peace Treaties and Territory Changes
- North America, the Caribbean and the Pacific: The Treaty of Trenton is signed in Trenton, New Jersey on December 7th 1917, and was negotiated personally by CS President Gabriel Semmes, US President Walter McKenna, Canadian Prime Minister Robert Borden, and British Ambassador to the US Sir Cecil Spring Rice. The treaty was noticeably harsh towards the US. The US was forced to give up large amounts of territory to the Confederacy, Canada and Britain.
- The Confederacy was to gain the Southern portions of Illinois and Indiana, all of Maryland along with the now former de jure capital of Washington DC, all of New Mexico, all of West Virginia (which was absorbed back into Virginia) while Missouri was put under military but not annexed altogether. Utah was given independence as the Republic of Deseret under Confederate protection.
- The Sandwich Islands are returned to British control.
- Aside from territorial concessions, the US is forced to pay harsh reparations to the victors, and also had to agree to severe restrictions on their military. For instance, the US military could have no more than 100,000 men, barrels, submarines, poison gas, and new airplanes are prohibited (with severe restrictions on current models). All usable warships in the US's possession (even the ones that were just built or are under construction) are all taken by the CSA, Canada, and the UK. Lastly, the US had to accept the blame for starting the North American Theater of the war. The treaty is utter humiliation for the United States. It has now lost three wars in a row to the CSA and its allies.
- While Haiti was invaded by Confederate and British forces and the government booked it and went into exile in Philadelphia, it was only a junior member of the Central Powers in the Southern Victory timeline, so the Confederacy might just allow for the old government to return to Port-au-Prince, but will likely be suitably chastened. In the end, Haiti becomes either a Confederate puppet or a Confederate protectorate.
- Alaska: Once the Russian Civil War/Russian Revolution starts to get out of hand, the British and Canadians would invade Alaska to prevent if from falling under Soviet influence. I doubt the British would want Communism on their doorsteps. After the invasion, Alaska will likely become a British protectorate of some sort before eventually being annexed into Canada. Who knows, maybe Alaska will eventually experience a population boom when and if gold and oil are ever found.
- Europe: Some things different then OTL while others stay the same.
- Germany: Germany's territorial losses will likely be the same as OTL, with France Belgium, Denmark (which might join the Entente at the tail end of the war), and the new nations of Czechoslovakia and Lithuania (assuming they form like in OTL) gaining territory from the Germans. Alsace-Lorraine is annexed back to France. Germany is likely forced to pay harsh war reparations like in OTL.
- Ireland: Like with Haiti, I haven't the slightest idea of what will happen to Eire. I assume once the European Theater of the war ends, the British will likely send their remaining arms over to Ireland, crush the rebellion, and have Ireland under heavy occupation for years to come and could possibly still remain occupied during the Second Great War. If another uprising happens (a.k.a, the Irish War of Independence) it's possible that Ireland could become independent as the Irish Free State. If Ireland does become independent, I'm pretty sure that it will remain neutral during the Second Great War.
- Italy: With the Kingdom of Italy remaining neutral during the Great War, I don't know what the country's future will hold. It's possible that Benito Mussolini could rise in the country and have it join the Central Powers (the US and Germany) and be on their side during the Second Great War. Either that or it will be a neutral fascist dictatorship similar to Francisco Franco in Spain or the Estado Novo Government in Portugal.
- Russia: While the Russian Revolution ended in 1926 in Southern Victory, no nation will be able to offer proper help now. With that, the centuries old Russian Empire falls and the Soviet Union (or something similar to it) rises in its place. The Czar Nicholas II and his family are either killed or they go into exile. The Soviets are forced to give several areas of the former Russian Empire independence such as Finland, portions of Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and Belarus. Alaska (mentioned above) was invaded by the British and Canadians to prevent if from falling under Soviet influence.
- South America: The Empire of Brazil will likely become top dog in South America, but for it to do that it will have to see off a challenge from Argentina. Hoefully, Brazil will wait until the Great War ends everywhere else before it joins the South American War (which began in 1915) on the side of Chile and Paraguay to help fight against Argentina. The Entente probably wouldn't care as long as Brazil, Chile and Paraguay tell them that have no intentions of cutting off British supply lines in the South Atlantic.
- Africa: Pretty much the same as OTL.
- German Colonies: German East Africa (Tanzania) is mostly taken over by the British while Belgium gains Ruanda-Urundi (Burundi and Rwanda). German South West Africa (Namibia) is taken over by the British/South Africans. Both German Cameroon and German Togoland are split between the British and French.
- Liberia: I doubt anything will come of Liberia. Since it was only a junior member of the Central Powers and was aligned to them and didn't fight any members of the Entente, I'm pretty sure the Entente will just let Liberia off with a warning and will leave the nation alone. It's highly doubtful that the French would invade it and absorb it into French West Africa. With the US will turn into a dictatorship, Liberia will likely remain neutral in the Second Great War and remain on the sidelines.
- Asia, Asian Pacific, and the Middle East: Some things different then OTL while others stay the same.
- Ottoman Empire: Likely the same as OTL. The Ottoman Empire collapses by the early 1920s with the British and French carving up most of the Middle East for themselves. Turkey itself will likely get a Treaty of Sèvres like event with the British, French and Greeks occupying sections or at least having them under their influence for a brief time.
- German Colonies in the Pacific: The German Colonies in the Pacific will likely be taken over by the British and Japanese.
Interwar Period (1918-1929)
The US likely won't be able to keep up with the reparations towards the Entente. Inflation would become rampant, the economy would go down the toilet, unemployment would rise dramatically, and social unrest (socialist uprisings most likely) would likely affect every region of the country. These consequences result in Democratic incumbent President Walter McKenna being defeated in the 1920 presidential election in a landslide by Socialist Party candidate Upton Sinclair, making him the first Socialist elected the US Presidency. Sinclair wins the presidency mainly due to the fact that the Democrats lost the Great War three years prior, but also because he promises to fix the problems the country was facing after the war, although in reality they would most likely end up becoming empty promises. However, Sinclair angers the public when he "tries to cozy up to the Entente." He enforces the continued reparations, and even reduces the military to lower than that allowed by the Treaty of Trenton, much to the anger and disappointment of many across the country.
Confederate States and Canada
In contrast to the instability and social unrest of the US in the late 1910s and early 1920s, the Confederate States and Canada would enjoy utmost prosperity. Known as the 'roaring twenties,' the two nations would experience economic growth never before seen in their history. In the Confederacy in particular, increased industrialization in the major cities as well as the countryside, continued production in agriculture, and other factors benefited the economy, as well as increased immigration to the country from Europe. The Confederate military was the largest and most powerful on the North American continent. The war has definitely changed the nation, however. Defeating their northern neighbor for the third time in over fifty years had increased their sense of national pride, yes, but the necessities from the last round had made the Confederate public reexamine their views on many things. One of those views was on race. While Whites were the ones in charge and Hispanics were a tolerated minority, views on the blacks would change. During the later half of the Great War, African-Confederate troops had been a major boost in manpower as losses in white troops increased, and they were very courageous. In addition to that, many Afro-Confederates worked in the factories and other large businesses while most white men were drafted into the army. As a reward for their service, black veterans were granted the right to vote and citizenship; rights never before granted to them or any other black in the country. President Semmes, recognizing that blacks are just patriotic as whites, introduced to congress legislation for full civil rights for all African-Confederates. However, with the memories of the black Socialist uprisings from the war still in their heads, they end up rejecting it. Afro-Confederate would later gain full rights decades later, but that's another story.
In the 1927 CSA Presidential Election, Wade Hampton V is replaced by his Vice President Burton Mitchel, who narrowly defeats Radical Liberal candidate Joseph T. Robinson. The race was closer than it was in 1921 and the Radical Liberals are getting excited for 1933.
The Rest of the World
The Rise of Gordon McSweeney (1920s-1933)
During Sinclair's presidency, several extremist groups capitalized on this in order to appeal to the public. Among those groups is the National Patriotic Party (more widely known simply as the Patriot Party) under Gordon McSweeney. Instead of getting killed towards the end of the Great War, McSweeney becomes an undisputed hero in his own right. However, he was suicidal and many people would call him psychotic. McSweeney was forced to endure the shame of surrender in the Nashville Pocket and became savagely embittered from the defeat.
Within a few years, the NPP became the second largest third party after the Republicans as well as the most prominent of the extremist groups, and many of the extremist groups were even absorbed by it. The main reason the NPP gained prominence was through McSweeney. McSweeney was a remarkably talented speaker. However, he spoke with absolute hatred and wrath for some many things; he claimed the Democrats were liars in their manner of prosecuting the war, that the Socialists were cowards who were trying to deliberately weaken the nation, that the Republicans were flip-floppers who did as they pleased, and that ethnics groups such as Catholics, Jews, and Mormons (especially the Mormons, whom McSweeney hated the most since he fought in the Mormon uprising of 1915) were trying to destroy the United States from within. McSweeney promised to deal with all these groups, and to make the United States a world power once again, and to do so with the help of the one true God (McSweeney, a devout Presbyterian, was convinced that all other religions were evil, and that it was God's will that he achieve greatness for himself and his country). McSweeney ran in the 1924 election and came in third place, but ultimately lost to Hosea Blackford and Democrat James M. Cox.
While the NPP would eventually take over the country, things looked a little foggy for the party in 1923 when, at a Socialist rally in Detroit, Michigan, President Upton Sinclair was assassinated by a delusional NPP member named James Perkins. Perkins would later be sentenced to death by the federal government while VP Hosea Blackford was sworn in as the new president. The NPP's popularity fell dramatically, and it would spend the next six years "wandering in the desert." Also hurting it was the fact that now-President Blackford successfully got the Entente to cancel the war reparations.
The Great Depression
List of US Presidents
This is the list of Presidents of the United States in this timeline. Some speculation had to be done for the Presidents between Lincoln and Tilden and between Blaine and Roosevelt.
Washington through Buchanan same as OTL.
- 1: George Washington (1789-1797)
- 2: John Adams (1797-1801)
- 3: Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809)
- 4: James Madison (1809-1817)
- 5: James Monroe (1817-1825)
- 6: John Quincy Adams (1825-1829)
- 7: Andrew Jackson (1829-1837)
- 8: Martin Van Buren (1837-1841)
- 9: William Henry Harrison (1841) (Died in office)
- 10: John Tyler (1841-1845)
- 11: James Knox Polk (1845-1849)
- 12: Zachary Taylor (1849-1850) (Died in office)
- 13: Millard Fillmore (1850-1853)
- 14: Franklin Pierce (1853-1857)
- 15: James Buchanan (1857-1861)
- 16: Abraham Lincoln (1861-1865)
- 17: Horatio Seymour (1865-1873)
- 18: George W. Woodward (1873-1875) (Died in office)
- 19: Thomas A. Hendricks (1875-1877)
- 20: Samuel J. Tilden (1877-1881)
- 21: James G. Blaine (1881-1885)
- 22: Winfield Scott Hancock (1885-1886) (Died in office)
- 23: Thomas F. Bayard (1886-1889)
- 24: Alfred Thayer Mahan (1889-1897)
- 25: Thomas Reed (1897-1902) (Died in office)
- 26: Adlai Stevenson I (1902-1905)
- 27: Elihu Root (1905-1913)
- 28: Theodore Roosevelt (1913-1917) (Killed in office)
- 29: Walter McKenna (1917-1921)
- 30: Upton Sinclair (1921-1923) (Assassinated)
- 31: Hosea Blackford (1923-1929)
- 32: Hiram Johnson (1929-1933)
- 33: Gordon McSweeney (1933-1944) (Killed in office)
- 34: Jonathan Moss (1944) (Last US President, USA dissolved after surrender in the Second Great War)
List of CS Presidents
This is the list of Presidents of the Confederate in this timeline. Some speculation had to be done for the Presidents between Davis and Longstreet and between him and Wilson. I also had to find a place for Confederate President Lee to be, who is probably Fitzhugh Lee.
- 1: Jefferson Davis (1861-1868)
- 2: Alexander Stephens (1868-1874)
- 3: James Chesnut Jr. (1874-1880)
- 4: James Longstreet (1880-1886)
- 5: Zebulon Baird Vance (1886-1892)
- 6: Fitzhugh Lee "Confederate President Lee" (1892-1898)
- 7: Clifton Breckinridge (1898-1904)
- 8: Champ Clark (1904-1904)
- 9: Woodrow Wilson (1910-1916)
- 10: Gabriel Semmes (1916-1922)
- 11: Wade Hampton V (1922-1928)
- 12: Burton Mitchel (1928-1934)
- 13: Cordell Hull (1934-1940) (First Radical Liberal President)
- 14: Huey Long (1940-1942) (Killed in bombing raid during the Second Great War)
- 15: John Nance Garner (1942-1946)
Possible Maps and Alternate History Topics
https://www.deviantart.com/blamedthande/art/TL-191-gone-horribly-right-178060320 - BlamedThande's "TL-191 gone horribly right" map.
https://www.deviantart.com/freedim/art/Timeline-191-Entente-Victory-606405438 - Freedim's "Timeline-191 Entente Victory" showing the USA, CSA, Canada, and Mexico's wins in loses during the First and Second Great Wars.
https://www.deviantart.com/freedim/art/TL-191-the-Presbyterian-Butcher-620408113- Freedim's Post Great War map of the world. Part of "The Presbyterian Butcher: A History of President Gordon McSweeney" fan-fiction timeline.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/attachments/entnete-victory-map-png.68979/ - A map of the world of a Entnte Victory in the Great War from an alternatehistory.com discussion about Southern Victory from nearly a decade ago.
https://www.fanfiction.net/s/11346208/1/The-Presbyterian-Butcher-A-History-of-President-Gordon-McSweeney - Spiff's Oliphaunt's "The Presbyterian Butcher: A History of President Gordon McSweeney".