Now here is the thing that puzzles me. We get this info from Bryce Miller's POV on a TV screen in an airport boarding area. It shows a headline "Nuclear Strikes on Tel Aviv, Tehran". Then there is the quote from the Israeli PM and then the probable nuking of Qom.
Either the PM is going for two eyes for an eye despite his speech or the first strike was Israeli with an Iranian counter-strike followed by a second Israeli strike. The second option doesn't seem compatible with HT's views as I get from his writings (but remember Niven's law). However, sequential attacks on Iranian cities makes little sense either. If Israel was going for "two eyes" it would hit both Tehran and Qom at the same time.
I guess we may get more from the next book. ML4E 23:25, March 9, 2012 (UTC)
- I didn't pick up on that. Another option might be that just purely as a matter of strategy, blowing up the Supreme Leader of Iran might have been too good an opportunity. TR 23:43, March 9, 2012 (UTC)
- I haven't read the book, but I see we're ruling out sheer sloppiness on HT's part, similar to the number of landcruisers Jager killed in UtB or the US flag in WiH? Turtle Fan 05:51, March 10, 2012 (UTC)
- Its all within several paragraphs on one page so sloppiness seems unlikely. ML4E 17:19, March 10, 2012 (UTC)
- Addendum: I just reread the section. After quoting the Israeli PM, Bryce expects the TV to show footage of devastated Tehran. Instead there is a news flash about the light over Qom. The way it reads seems pretty deliberate. ML4E 17:35, March 10, 2012 (UTC)
- Rereading these articles after a bit of random jumping across this wiki, I couldn't help noticing that it's not exactly confirmed that the first two cities were nuked by each other's governments. Now that the series is over, I don't suppose it's possible to suggest that the initial salvo came from some unknown third party, and Israel--without having heard about Tehran--assumed it was Iranian and made Qom its first target? Turtle Fan (talk) 16:42, February 10, 2015 (UTC)
- Your suggestion hadn't occurred to me. However, I don't recall any hints that there was a third party involved and the rest of the series has continuing conflict in the Middle East without details. Also, I would think Israel's counterattack would be directed at Tehran if they didn't know of it being bombed. Your suggestion does make some sense but I would have liked Turtledove to drop some hints that that had happened. In the third book, we have a throw away paragraph about Kazakh special forces blowing up two Russian nuclear plants in retaliation to their invasion which caused an increase in background radiation. I would have liked a comment like that before speculating about a third party attack in the article. ML4E (talk) 19:29, February 10, 2015 (UTC)
- Having some unknown third party precipitate a nuclear war between two other countries, and never once having a single hint dropped about who it might have been, is certainly some pretty unsatisfying storytelling. I did think it would account for the paradox you note (in fact it was my first thought as I read the articles) but it's a damned hard case to make if the entire series didn't give even an ambiguous mention.
- So Russia invaded Kazakhstan and the Kazakhs blew two nuclear plants? The impression I've always gotten from the articles you and TR have written is that HT focused way too closely on the domestic squabbles of his protagonist's family. If he threw out references to all these international conflicts and then snapped the reader right back with "But enough about that, you came here to read about how pissed someone's ex-wife is that he didn't come to their daughter's dance recital" or some such nonsense, I have to wonder if he was deliberately taunting us. Maybe in response to complaints about the lack of civilian POVs in some of his other series? Turtle Fan (talk) 04:07, February 11, 2015 (UTC)
- Yes, the trilogy was pretty much like that. Somewhat disappointing. I didn't find the soap opera elements entertaining but did find some interest in the personal lives of the two Ferguson sons and Bryce Miller, Vanessa's ex. The professional lives of Colin and Kelly was good but their personal lives were meh. The way Turtledove dropped these hints wasn't bad but I wish he had done it more often. ML4E (talk) 00:01, February 13, 2015 (UTC)
- Oh, as for hitting Tehran first: I remember reading somewhere years ago that, after the bombing of Hiroshima, Truman intended to order the second bomb dropped on Tokyo. I believe it was Henry Stimson (Secretary of War) who persuaded him to hit Nagasaki instead on the grounds that, if the Japanese government were decapitated, there would be no one who could order the military to stand down in preparation for a surrender. In the Cold War, Soviet and Anglo-American doctrine called for hitting each other's capitals in the first strike, but everyone involved in writing those doctrines knew that, if it ever came to that, they'd already be in a fight to the death and no quarter would be asked or given. I don't know what IDF doctrine is, but if the PM said "an eye for an eye," it sounds like he might have held out hope that, after exchanging one missile apiece, it would be possible to negotiate a ceasefire. As in 1945, destroying the enemy capital would greatly reduce the likelihood of that outcome. Turtle Fan (talk) 04:18, February 11, 2015 (UTC)
- Good point. Israel might of hit the known nuclear manufacturing sites especially those that were deep underground. The main deeply buried one is by Qom so that might have been HT's intention with the added bonus of an in-story possibility of getting the Grand Ayatollah. ML4E (talk) 00:01, February 13, 2015 (UTC)