Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-25626-20151023184552

This seems as good a time as any to make predictions about the course of the series, based on BA and what's been revealed about THW:F.

Overall
I think the USSR will lose in Europe. The disparity between atomic stockpiles is too great. HT seems to be aware of that: after the initial bursts of attacks, in the first half of the book, the USSR seems much pickier in the second half of the book. While the USSR has gained some traction, based on the hints in the Fallout cover copy, I think the US will start a-bombing Soviet/Red troops in Germany (Adenauer be damned) Austria and Italy, and it will soon become clear to anyone who can count that the Soviets aren't hitting back as frequently or as ferociously as the US. Since the Soviet satellite countries were still quite restive in OTL, I suspect we'll see Truman's plan to provoke rebellion will come to fruition. Concurrently, more rational members of the Soviet CP will start wondering just what the hell Stalin has gotten them into. As NATO starts pushing east, with a-bombs signalling their advance, the Red Army will also start wondering why they are fighting. We also know that the USA is targeting Stalin specifically. Either the US mission, whatever it its, takes, or some independent operator does it. Maybe we'll see a civil war as various factions move to replace the now dead Stalin.

While NATO can't occupy Russia in its entirety, I expect Soviet influence will collapse, with Stalin's buffer states falling back to the West, along with the Baltics, and maybe even the Ukraine. Given the state of affairs, NATO could set up camp in European Russia, I suppose, but that seems pushing it.

HT has hinted at the h-bomb. As I mentioned elsewhere, I won't be suprised if that is what makes the final difference: a supremely destructive weapon that the USSR can't possibly match. That having been said, the timeline is problematic--Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952, and unless HT really burns through some time in Fallout, I get the impression the war will be over before November, 1952. I can't point to why, I just have that feeling. So I may be barking up the wrong tree there.

In the US, once victory is achieved, the questions will immediately be: was it worth it? HT could probably go anyway he wanted to with this. While intuition would suggest that Truman's decisions were just too costly for the US, leading him to the same basic political fate as OTL, I think HT could plausibly make Truman a hero, and give him a win in '52. But I think HT will go with the "Truman the goat" narrative, have him opt out of running, or better yet, run and lose. I really like my Taft wins, dies on schedule and is replaced by Nixon idea, more because it plays to HT tropes than anything, but McCarthy seems to be gaining traction, so who knows. Plenty of politicians gained traction early in campaigns and then vanished.

I really have no idea how things go in Korea and China. We could have a the exact same result as OTL, with a much bloodier price. Or if the USSR implodes, then we could see the UN regain traction, and start pushing north again, and end with a unified RoK on the entire peninsula.

Now for some short term guesses.

Given where things are in Italy and Austria, I suspect there will be short lived Italian and Austrian People's republics before the end of 1951, but that will cease to exist in 1952. In unoccupied areas, Italian communists start creating chaos in support of Stalin, as hinted by the F cover copy.

With its capital destroyed, the French Fourth Republic falls. One would think that the president and PM would be in bomb shelters, following Adenauer's lead, but maybe not. Even so, I suspect we'll see de Gaulle pulled out of retirement, which would present its own set of challenges. De Gaulle didn't like the Anglosphere in WWII, and of course took France out of NATO, but being nuked is quite the insult. And, since HT has made such a point about French communists, we may see de Gaulle or whoever is in charge having to put down rebellions.

Britain seems safer for now. Based on the descriptions of the attacks in Bourdeaux and Paris, getting to London by plan might be more trouble than its worth. A bomb in a freighter could work, but I suspect shipping traffic is going to be that much more checked. In OTL, there was an election in October, 1951 after Attlee decided to try to shore up Labour's thin majority; instead the Conservatives won and Churchill replaced Attlee. In the midst of a war, I have to think Churchill will be chomping at the bit to get back to 10 Downing, and so we'll probably see confidence votes and the like, followed by an election, followed by a likely Churchill win.

It's kind of refreshing to play the prediction game with an HT series and not have a template to work from. My guesses are just that, based one some of what HT has hinted at, and what did happen, but really, everything is up in the air here.  