Forum:Hitler's War predictions

Let's see how wrong we get it.

1. Since HT has stated that although Sanjurjo's survival is the primary change, but the impact isn't noticeable until 1938, I'm saying that the ultimate result in the Spanish Civil War is the same, but Sanjurjo looks and sounds like he will side with Hitler militarily.

I'm still not sure how this changes Chamberlain's mind--seems like another enemy would be more leverage for Chamberlain to pursue peace, not war. I should also point out that the statement Steven Silver provided only said that Munich "fell apart", but didn't assign blame--maybe Hitler just gets cocky with Spain at his side. I realize DelRey's ads say otherwise, but what's that really worth?

2. Given the title, I'm inclined to think that Germany fights more or less alone, save perhaps Spain, in the beginning.

3. Italy-could go with Germany, but given the history, I think that neutrality or sideing with the Allies are more plausible. Mussolini was nervous about Germany in OTL, and had vaguely hinted a willingness to join Britain and France. If an interventionist Spain is present, Mussolini might reasonably see a real rival to his dream of making the Mediterranean into an Italian lake. There is something to be said for waiting and seeing how things shake out, of course.

4. USSR-had a defense pact with Czechoslovakia. Barbarossa notwithstanding, Stalin seems to have figured out Hitler pretty quickly, and had signaled his willingness to engage Hitler if the West stood fast. Protecting Czechoslovakia would have the benefit of allowing Stalin to expand his reach under the guise of aiding an ally, and maybe help push Hitler west, which was one of Stalin's goals.

In OTL, the USSR was shut out of Munich, which helped push Stalin to detente with Hitler we don't know how that goes.

5. Poland-I think might make a daring prediction based on minor evidence, but I suspect Poland will actually become a co-belligerent with Germany for two reasons.

First, if the USSR does fight Germany, it will probably have to put troops in Czechoslovakia to do it. Poland might get very nervous about having the Red Army directly south of its border, and Stalin was certainly opportunistic enough to start messing about up north.

Second, Poland and Germany as allies in World War II is the kind of irony HT loves.

6. The U.S.--now I'm going to be very daring. The U.S. will proclaim neutraility. I realize it sounds like the Logic of Ten Gizzis.